Tarrif's Potential Impact - USA System Dynamics Map
My curiosity to create a system map for the USA based on Ray Dalio’s "Overall Big Cycle" framing (like the cycling safety system map you shared), we can translate his five interrelated disruptions into feedback loops. These loops can help us visualize how structural forces interact and reinforce (or balance) each other. Here's a sketch of how a System Dynamics Map might be structured: Core Feedback Loops in the U.S. Systemic Disruption Map R1 – Debt Spiral (Reinforcing Loop) Theme: Unsustainable Debt & Monetary Order Breakdown Government & consumer debt increases → Dependency on foreign lenders (e.g., China) grows → Global trust in U.S. dollar erodes → Capital flight or reduced foreign lending → U.S. must borrow more domestically or inflate debt away → Debt servicing costs increase → Budget stress intensifies → → Reinforces debt accumulation --- B1 – Productivity Trap (Balancing Loop) Theme: Domestic Manufacturing Decline Trade deficits rise → U.S. m...