Tarrif's Potential Impact - USA System Dynamics Map

My curiosity to create a system map for the USA based on Ray Dalio’s "Overall Big Cycle" framing (like the cycling safety system map you shared), we can translate his five interrelated disruptions into feedback loops. These loops can help us visualize how structural forces interact and reinforce (or balance) each other. 

Here's a sketch of how a System Dynamics Map might be structured: 



Core Feedback Loops in the U.S. Systemic Disruption Map

R1 – Debt Spiral (Reinforcing Loop)

Theme: Unsustainable Debt & Monetary Order Breakdown

Government & consumer debt increases →

Dependency on foreign lenders (e.g., China) grows →

Global trust in U.S. dollar erodes →

Capital flight or reduced foreign lending →

U.S. must borrow more domestically or inflate debt away →

Debt servicing costs increase →

Budget stress intensifies →
→ Reinforces debt accumulation



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B1 – Productivity Trap (Balancing Loop)

Theme: Domestic Manufacturing Decline

Trade deficits rise →

U.S. manufacturing base erodes →

Middle-class job losses →

Political pressure for reshoring & tariffs →

Tariffs increase domestic production costs →

Consumer prices rise →
→ Limits effectiveness of reshoring efforts



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R2 – Political Polarization Loop

Theme: Domestic Political Order Breakdown

Income & education inequality widens →

Distrust in institutions increases →

Rise in populism (left and right) →

Governing becomes gridlocked →

Further inability to address root inequality →
→ Reinforces polarization and decline in democratic compromise



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R3 – Global Power Shift Loop

Theme: Geopolitical Order Breakdown

U.S. moves from multilateralism to unilateralism →

Global institutions weaken (e.g., WTO, UN) →

China/Russia push alternative orders →

Global cooperation declines →

Economic and tech decoupling accelerates →

National self-sufficiency becomes the focus →
→ Reinforces deglobalization and fragmentation



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R4 – Nature & Crisis Amplifier

Theme: Climate, Pandemics, & Natural Disasters

Acts of nature increase (e.g., floods, droughts, pandemics) →

Infrastructure strain & economic losses →

Need for public investment rises →

Debt burden increases →

Less fiscal space for resilience investments →
→ Amplifies systemic vulnerability



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R5 – Tech Disruption Loop

Theme: Exponential Technologies (AI, etc.)

AI/automation adoption increases →

Job displacement in traditional sectors →

Need for re-skilling and new education models →

Political lag in adapting to tech change →

Social discontent rises →
→ Reinforces inequality and political stress



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Causal Arcs and Intersections

Tariffs are a symptom node triggered by R1, R2, and R3.

Trust (in domestic institutions, in global financial systems, in geopolitical alliances) is a fragile connector across all loops.

Deglobalization connects R1, R3, and R5.

Debt connects R1, R2, R4, and R5.



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